Data centers are masking a thinner commercial pipeline

Strip data centers out of the Dodge Momentum Index and the commercial pipeline is much thinner than the headline suggests. The single sector's cooling in August was enough to flatten the broader measure of nonresidential construction projects even as most other sectors accelerated, according to Dodge Construction Network data reported by Construction Dive.

The index, which tracks projects entering the planning stages, slipped 0.4% month over month in August, following July's 6.9% jump in total planning, when data centers posted gains, and remains 4.2% above its August 2025 level. “Strength in planning momentum remained relatively broad-based in August,” said Sarah Martin, Dodge’s director of economic research. “Weaker data center planning predominantly drove the flatter trend, while most other sectors saw an acceleration in planning momentum.” Office, hotel, education, and public building projects all improved month over month, while retail, warehouse, and healthcare planning pulled back, the last after four straight months of growth. Dodge counted 31 projects valued at $100 million or more entering planning during August.

Dodge also calculates what commercial planning looks like without data centers: down 18.9% from August 2025, against a 2.3% increase with them included. That gap measures how much of the commercial pipeline now depends on data centers. The headline index is starting to behave like a data center indicator with a commercial construction footnote — and the footnote is the weaker story.

August's dip is timing noise, not evidence the data center buildout is fading. Planning activity is the noisiest stage in a project's life; a one-month decline after a strong July, with 31 large projects still entering the queue, hardly settles the question. But the mix is worth watching. A month in which data centers lagged while offices and hotels improved is consistent with a pipeline whose next wave is being gated by siting, grid interconnection, and permit timelines — the constraints that decide when planned capacity becomes construction. A slower planning queue is a reminder that the buildout is now timed by infrastructure constraints as much as by demand.